Annexation of Belarus can start with Russia’s resuming military operations in Donbas.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a continuation of the unconscious struggle between systems and ideas: a free world and concentration camps, a democracy and a totalitarianism, rotating authorities, changed in elections, and an unchangeable power of dictators. But this proxy war against the West on the Ukrainian territory Vladimir Putin is inevitably to break all those economic, social and cultural ties with Ukraine the Russian Federation had after the collapse of the Soviet Union. It is written on the website of the Ukrainian service of Radio Svaboda by a Ukrainian political analyst Viktor Kaspruk.
The super-idea of Putin is to maintain his power over Russians at any costs. Though he is trying to demonstrate his “might” and determination with a vengeance, when one takes a closer look at his limp figure and his eyes which are no longer glowing, one can see reflections of Saddam Hussein, Slobodan Miloŝeviç, August Pinochet and Muammar Gaddafi’s lives instead of him.
Putin has created a rigid hierarchical structure with its inherent cult of a kind tsar and evil court nobility, which naturally emerges in any closed human system. The greater isolation is, the greater is the cult, and vice versa. It’s a law of nature. The problem is, with such a system a modern economy could never be built.
And the most important thing is that the absence of moral principles not only in Putin, but in his entourage, could not be substituted by demonstration of pretend faith. In Russia yesterday’s atheists, and now priests, have replaced individual morals and have become rulers of men’s minds.
Genetically Russians have inherited morals of Golden Horde’s population
Putin is out of sync with the international ethics of the 21st century. And this gap means a total rejection of international law and norms.
Over the years of the foreign yoke, Russians have internalized morals of the Golden Horde’s occupiers genetically. That is why Putin lives by morals of a medieval khan.
It’s a khan precisely, as kings of Europe were predominantly defenders of their nationals, and in Asian khanates people were an expendable material for “gods-emperors.”
The power of Putin has become possible due to a too high and unjustified trust of the West in the former Empire. After all, Russia has been acting in the same way as now for no less than the last 100 years – at least since the times of the Bolshevik coup in 1917.
There have been calm periods certainly, when it was helped and there were hopes about it. But later this assistance was always used against those who had helped Russia.
There have been easing in the end of the 1980-ies – beginning of the 1990-ies, when independent business was given a breathing spell. However, then the process of seizing business from “aliens” started.
Then the post-Soviet establishment, using bandits which were close to them socially, decided that they had understood everything and could do the same independently, started a cruel clean-up of the business field against the people who were alien to the system.
And it lasted until the next disappointment. Then there was an illusion of democratization and involvement of new naïve people to teach how to overcome another lag.
The West certainly has its own interests, but also its clear principles. And Putin has no principles at all, only interests (and notably only his own self-interest), that is why he is losing. The tactics of a hardcore street tough is not working now.
The Russian nation, which got hooked on “Horde-style cheap booze” hundreds of years ago, could not be cured simply by an intravenous democracy, freedom of speech and freedom in general treatment, as it is not just an excessive drinking, but an addiction to cheap booze, alcohol dependence.
And alcoholism is a serious disease, which results in irreparable changes in the mental state, which could not be recovered, and destroys personality. It could not be treated in fact.
It needs regular doses of the booze, for this Russian organism not to die amid absence of new ways of treatment, and specific symptoms of delirium tremens.
Geopolitical “delirium tremens” of Moscow
This geopolitical “delirium tremens” is fed by Moscow even more. Though Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov they state for the whole world to hear that support of the “Russian world” is a priority of the Russian foreign policy.
That is, first the Kremlin had been replacing the local population in Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, the Baltic States and Central Asia by Russians from other regions and by local “janissaries”, and now it is going to defend them from possible processes of de-Russification with all ones might.
Putin understands that the key to the Russia’s future, or to be more exact, to the future of the new Russian Empire, as he sees it, is in Ukraine.
That is why, having stumbled in Ukraine, next year he is could switch his aggression to Belarus as an important foothold for a new attack against the Ukrainian state.
The “morals” of Putin are: everything is allowed as long as he personally finds it expedient. Lukashenka won’t be able to do anything, if the Kremlin decides to transform Belarus into “the Western Federal District” of Russia.
And as long as Lukashenka has started flirting with the West, it could be a serious pretext for removal from power of the Belarusian dictator, who looks as if he does not understand how saturated by Moscow cadres the Belarusian KGB is. And these cadres are just waiting for a signal from the Kremlin.
Anschluss of Belarus could start in the beginning of 2016, alongside with resuming of military operations of Russia in Donbas.
The lull in fighting in the “Ukrainian front” should alarm Western analysts and decision-makers. It looks very much like an ebb tide before a powerful destructive tsunami.
And here against attention should be paid to the words of Lavrov should: “As before, we are going to defend the rights of compatriots with energy, using the full range of tools we have under the international law.”
We have already witnessed how Russia “observes” the international law by the example of annexation of Ukrainian Crimea and occupation of a part of Donbas.
But if Putin wants to open the second front in order to attack Ukraine, there is no better foothold for that than an occupied Belarus.
On the wave of patriotism, “standing from knees” euphoria, and PR-bombing in Syria, the conscience of Russians have atrophied completely. That is why they are to support another Putin’s reckless political undertaking – return of Belarus “back home” to Russia.
As soon as we notice that Russian mass media start an intensive informational campaign against Lukashenka, when from an ally he is to turn into a parasite and enemy, it would be possible to speak about an imminent Russia’s invasion of Belarus.
And “the green men” have already infiltrated Belarus. Under the guise of guards at Russian military installations they are planning to take under control state institutions and strategic facilities in Minsk and the key industrial cities of the country.
Now Putin is preparing to use spetsnaz in the fight on terrorists in Syria. It is known by the fact that it is allowed to fight against enemies using any methods –including the terrorist ones, taking hostages from families of their adversaries.
Now who could guarantee that Putin, deprived of any moral checks, would not use these spetsnaz forces to subjugate Belarus? And after that he would not send these cutthroats to defiant Kyiv, which does not want to join “the Russian world” voluntarily?